If our Sunshine Coast sample of 54 is representative (and they are drawn from postcodes up and down the area, so they are at least geographically representative) then Bob Abbot, Mayor of Noosa, is a shoo-in for Mayor of the new local government area rather than Joe Natoli, Mayor of Maroochy Shire.

This is another city where residents are unhappy about the direction that their council(s) is taking.

There are a number of reasons for this.

A large proportion opposed the amalgamation of Caloundra, Maroochy and Noosa into the new city. Residents are also concerned about the influence of developers on councils, and over-development of the area.

Those who agreed that their council was heading in the right direction were most likely to cite the sustainability of development.

There is a clear geographical divide marking satisfaction. If you are satisfied with the direction of council, then you are overwhelmingly likely to live in the former Noosa council area. If you are dissatisfied then you are most likely to live in the former Caloundra or Maroochy.

A large proportion of this effect appears to be attributable to the performance of the Noosa Shire Council under Bob Abott. When they are asked why they support Abbot or Natoli there are two overwhelming themes – one is the record in office, the other is that they don’t like the other candidate. Abbot scores well on both of these criteria.

As Abbot’s record as Mayor of Noosa Shire Council is one of allowing development, but to a strict limit, which includes population caps and height restrictions, it is not surprising voters approve. The issues that they overwhelmingly nominate as being the most important in determining their vote are sustainable development and the environment.

Natoli is seen as the developers’ friend: Abbot is the friend of nature and the humane scale.

Reasons for mayoral choice dissected by contestant