Will Labor lose The Gabba ward and if they do who will be the winner -the Greens' Drew Hutton, or Liberal Matthew Myers?

Polling by Ask Australia suggests that at least Hutton is perceived as a potential winner by one of the parties. In the opinion of Graham Young, this is most likely to be Labor.

Will Labor lose The Gabba ward and if they do who will be the winner - the Greens' Drew Hutton, or Liberal Matthew Myers?

We contacted Ask Australia principal Darcy Werner, but she would not confirm or deny that they were polling in Brisbane. However we understand from residents that apart from standard polling questions Ask Australia asked residents "If you were told that Drew Hutton, would pursue a radical green agenda rather than fix potholes would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for him?"

Polling expert Graham Young says that the question is a legitimate one and is likely to be "argument testing" rather than "push polling".

"Political parties commission research into questions like these when they are thinking of using particular positive or negative phrases in a campaign.

"It makes sense to see whether the public will react positively or negatively to statements about yourself or your opponent."

He says that the more interesting point is who commissioned the research, and why they are targeting Hutton.

"I understand from the Brisbane Times that the Labor Party denies commissioning the research, although Campbell Newman claims this same company was also recently asking "skewed" questions about him.

"On the balance of probabilities I think it is someone associated with the Labor Party."

Mr Young said that there are a number of reasons why either the Liberal or Labor parties might be considering running a negative campaign against Hutton.

"The Greens have recently done well in inner-city areas. Last state election they gained 21.49% of the vote in South Brisbane to the Liberal Party's 25.33%.

"With our polling showing Newman doubling the generic Liberal Party vote it is likely that the Liberals are doing much better this election. However, it is quite likely that the Greens are also up, with both Liberal and Labor supporting the Hale Street bridge which connects to part of The Gabba Ward."

Mr Young said that Labor could well need Greens preferences to win.

"The problem for them is that under an optional system, voters may just vote one, in which case Labor misses its flow of preferences advantaging the Liberals, even though these Greens voters would most likely favour Labor over the Liberals.

"So Labor has an interest in lowering the Greens vote and asking these voters for a first preference rather than relying on an allocation of second preferences."