Newman is winning the votes of around 15% of normal Labor voters, and winning around 70% of voters who don’t traditionally vote for any particular party, making his vote twice his party’s traditional vote and very much a personal achievement.

While the large issues are public transport and traffic, one of the negatives about Newman is his tunnels program. This means that his support is substantially about his intentions and character and the idea that he should be given a chance, rather than support for particular projects. His supporters also tend to cite his undertaking to build “infrastructure” which covers more than just tunnels. To his enemies “tunnels” focuses their dislike of him and narrows his achievements down to what they see as being his weakest point.

The Greens are not polling particularly well. While they are 20% of our sample, this is around historical averages, and will probably translate into a real vote of between six and eight percent. The reasons for this may well be that as a non-politician Newman is attractive to some of their traditional supporters, and that none of the issues are the sort of iconic environmental issues with which the Greens are normally associated. Newman also acted early to take the heat out of the Greenhouse debate with the BCC actively pursuing CO2 mitigation strategies.

Newman’s slogan of “Can do more” implicitly accepts some of his failings, reinforcing that he’s not just another I’m-always-right politician as well as drawing attention to one of the arguments that is converting more voters than any other – I’m being frustrated by a self-interested Labor party.

Most important Issues

 Points from polling

1. Demographics only 35% female, over-represented in the older groups
2. Traditional voting intention is similar to our other qualitative surveys – Greens 19% (about two to three times over-represented), Labor 36% (probably a little under-represented), Liberal 22% (about one-third under-represented).
3. Newman scores 48% of the vote, and Rowell 35%. Past experience suggests that after preferences this is likely to be 60% or better to Newman.
4. Newman collects 68% of those who don’t normally vote for any particular party, and 17% of traditional Labor voters. He needs to because at 48% his vote is more than twice the traditional Liberal vote – he is converting huge numbers of voters to brand Newman.
5. 39% of voters agree or strongly agree that the city is heading in the right direction and 39% disagree or strongly disagree – a dead heat – but this isn’t hurting Newman. One reason is the hung city council.
6. The hung council is working strongly in Newman’s favour. 17% of voters mention it spontaneously when asked whether the council is “heading in the right direction”, and 26% of those voting for Newman mention it as one factor. It is particularly effective with those who do not normally vote for any particular party with 21% of them mentioning it, and of this percentage, 87.5% are voting for Newman.
7. Virtually all issues are to do with transport – roads and public transport (table with ranked concepts below). Of these issues, infrastructure, roads and traffic closely align with an intention to vote for Newman. Planning is a concern close to intention to vote for Rowell, while public transport is associated most with an intention to vote for Bragg. (Speculation. There may be a split along car ownership and usage lines).
8. “Future” ranked well-down – voters are concerned about present problems.
9. In terms of reasons for voting for the various candidates, an intention to vote for Newman is associated with concepts like “job” and Labor. Newman is also associated with “Brisbane”. The clear implication here is that he is seen as getting on with the job and what’s best for Brisbane, and the ALP is seen as having frustrated him and being interested in what’s best for them. Interestingly the tunnels, and the term “Campbell Newman” are most closely associated  with voting for Rowell. There is a personal element to this contest, and if Newman has a weakness, it is being seen to be fixated on tunnels (something which many see as of dubious benefit). Interestingly, those who refer to Newman by his surname alone are more likely to be supporters than those who call him “Campbell Newman”. Bragg is most clearly associated with the word “candidate” indicating that she is seen in more personal, and personable terms.
10. “Liberal” does not feature as a concept. It is mentioned in the verbatims occasionally, generally in negative terms. The brand is very much Newman. “Can Do” is only mentioned 9 times in all the answers, indicating that it has not really taken-off as a brand. However, the fact that “job” is so strongly there indicates that “Can Do” is subliminally there.