Calling the election right

How many serious commentators did you hear predict that Queensland Labor would win by a slim majority? We only heard one – Australian Institute for Progress Executive Director, Graham Young.

You can hear him doing it again by clicking here, to listen to him on ABC RN Breakfast on Friday January 30 at 7:40 am, or click here to listen to him repeat his prediction on Brisbane local radio ABC612’s Morning Session the same day, but after 9:30 am.

Now Labor may just fall short, but not many commentators even got close to the final result.

While predicting elections is not our core business, understanding how politics works and how to influence politicians, advisors, journalists and ultimately voters, is.

Graham has been conducting qualitative polls since 2001 and has a remarkably good track record at predicting elections. Sometimes he’s with the herd, but if the herd isn’t with the facts, he’s happy to go out on his own.

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